Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lazio vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

Lazio
Lazio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Crotone
Crotone
1/8/2017Serie ASerie A · Round 19Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Lazio64%
×Draw19%
Crotone17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
2.25
Crotone
1.05

Lazio creates 114% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 32 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.90
Crotone
0.97

allows per match

Lazio
1.13
Crotone
2.59

finishing

Lazio+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
83%
Lazio or Crotone
81%
Draw or Crotone
36%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
41%
Crotone wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
89%
Lazio 2+ goals
65%
Lazio 3+ goals
39%
Crotone 1+ goals
65%
Crotone 2+ goals
28%
Crotone 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
79%
Crotone (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.13 · 138 matches

Crotone away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.90 + Crotone defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.25

Crotone attack 0.97 + Lazio defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Lazio scores more
64%
level
19%
Crotone scores more
17%

Lazio at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lazio 1 – 0 Crotone

Lazio beat Crotone 1-0 in Serie A on January 8, 2017.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.