Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lazio vs Bologna — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bologna
Bologna
8/14/2022Serie ASerie A · Round 1Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Lazio39%
×Draw28%
Bologna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.24
Bologna
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
Bologna
0.99

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
Bologna
1.11

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par
Bologna+0.53scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

Bologna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
66%
Lazio or Bologna
72%
Draw or Bologna
61%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
17%
Bologna wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
71%
Lazio 2+ goals
35%
Lazio 3+ goals
13%
Bologna 1+ goals
68%
Bologna 2+ goals
32%
Bologna 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
53%
Bologna (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

Bologna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Bologna attack 0.99 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lazio scores more
39%
level
28%
Bologna scores more
34%

Lazio at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio vs Bologna

Lazio beat Bologna 2-1 in Serie A on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.