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Lazio vs AS Roma — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
3/19/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 27Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Lazio36%
×Draw26%
AS Roma38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.31
AS Roma
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 20 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
AS Roma
1.43

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
AS Roma
1.24

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
62%
Lazio or AS Roma
74%
Draw or AS Roma
64%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
16%
AS Roma wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
73%
Lazio 2+ goals
38%
Lazio 3+ goals
14%
AS Roma 1+ goals
74%
AS Roma 2+ goals
39%
AS Roma 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
48%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.24 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + AS Roma defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

AS Roma attack 1.43 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lazio scores more
36%
level
26%
AS Roma scores more
38%

AS Roma at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio vs AS Roma

Lazio beat AS Roma 1-0 in Serie A on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.