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Lazio vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Lazio
Lazio
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
Luis Alberto 67', 23'
C. Immobile 14'
1/15/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 18Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Lazio37%
×Draw26%
AS Roma37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.33
AS Roma
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 22 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.31
AS Roma
1.40

allows per match

Lazio
1.25
AS Roma
1.35

finishing

Lazio+0.08on par
AS Roma-0.08on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
63%
Lazio or AS Roma
74%
Draw or AS Roma
63%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
17%
AS Roma wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
74%
Lazio 2+ goals
38%
Lazio 3+ goals
15%
AS Roma 1+ goals
73%
AS Roma 2+ goals
38%
AS Roma 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
50%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.35 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.31 + AS Roma defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

AS Roma attack 1.40 + Lazio defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lazio scores more
37%
level
26%
AS Roma scores more
37%

Lazio at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Lazio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Luis AlbertoLazioLazio · M
8.2

Match Events

11'
Sergej Milinković-Savić
14'
C. Immobile↳ M. Lazzari
20'
Ştefan Radu
23'
Luis Alberto↳ M. Lazzari
33'
Gianluca Mancini
45'
Francesco Acerbi
46'
Pedro← J. Veretout
60'
Chris Smalling
60'
B. Cristante← Gonzalo Villar
62'
Luiz Felipe
63'
Lucas Leiva
65'
G. Escalante← Lucas Leiva
66'
J. Akpa Akpro← F. Caicedo
67'
Luis Alberto↳ J. Akpa Akpro
69'
Patric← Luiz Felipe
71'
Pedro
71'
Borja Mayoral← G. Mancini
71'
Bruno Peres← L. Spinazzola
83'
V. Muriqi← C. Immobile
83'
W. Hoedt← Ş. Radu
90'
Henrikh Mkhitaryan

Possession

39%Lazio

Shots

8Lazio

Pass accuracy

49%Lazio

Statistics

LazioAS
Overview
39%Possession61%
8Total Shots6
1Corners7
12Fouls19
Shots
8Total Shots6
8On Target1
0Off Target4
0Blocked1
5Inside Box5
3Outside Box1
Passing
39%Possession61%
395Total Passes583
321Accurate Passes492
81%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
12Fouls19
5Yellow Cards4
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Lazio vs AS Roma

Lazio beat AS Roma 3-0 in Serie A on January 15, 2021.

Goals: C. Immobile (14'), Luis Alberto (23', 67').

AS Roma controlled possession (61%) and registered 6 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.