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Lazio vs AC Milan — Serie A 2018

Lazio
Lazio
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
1/24/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 19Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Lazio33%
×Draw26%
AC Milan41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.27
AC Milan
1.43

AC Milan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
AC Milan
1.57

allows per match

Lazio
1.29
AC Milan
1.17

finishing

Lazio+0.09on par
AC Milan-0.13scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
59%
Lazio or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
67%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
14%
AC Milan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
72%
Lazio 2+ goals
36%
Lazio 3+ goals
14%
AC Milan 1+ goals
76%
AC Milan 2+ goals
42%
AC Milan 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
45%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.17 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + AC Milan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

AC Milan attack 1.57 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lazio scores more
33%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
41%

AC Milan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lazio vs AC Milan

Lazio beat AC Milan 4-0 in Serie A on January 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Roma.