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Lazio vs AC Milan — Serie A 2026

Lazio
Lazio
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AC Milan
AC Milan
J. Correa 90+4'
Wallace 78' (OG)
11/25/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 13Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Lazio35%
×Draw26%
AC Milan39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lazio
1.30
AC Milan
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lazio
1.37
AC Milan
1.50

allows per match

Lazio
1.26
AC Milan
1.23

finishing

Lazio+0.07on par
AC Milan-0.11scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lazio ↓

AC Milan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Lazio or draw
61%
Lazio or AC Milan
74%
Draw or AC Milan
65%

Winning margin

Lazio wins by 2+
15%
AC Milan wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lazio 1+ goals
73%
Lazio 2+ goals
37%
Lazio 3+ goals
14%
AC Milan 1+ goals
75%
AC Milan 2+ goals
40%
AC Milan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lazio (draw refunded)
48%
AC Milan (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lazio at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

AC Milan away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.23 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lazio attack 1.37 + AC Milan defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

AC Milan attack 1.50 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lazio scores more
35%
level
26%
AC Milan scores more
39%

AC Milan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
M. BadeljLazioLazio · M
7.6

Match Events

33'
Sergej Milinković-Savić
65'
J. Lukaku← S. Milinković-Savić
65'
J. Correa← Luis Alberto
78'
WallaceOwn goal
82'
F. Caicedo← Ş. Radu
86'
Gianluigi Donnarumma
90+4'
J. Correa

Possession

54%Lazio

Shots

21Lazio

Pass accuracy

50%Lazio

Statistics

LazioAC
Overview
54%Possession46%
21Total Shots11
9Corners4
11Fouls4
Shots
21Total Shots11
5On Target3
11Off Target5
5Blocked3
12Inside Box5
9Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
548Total Passes462
466Accurate Passes386
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls4
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Lazio vs AC Milan

Lazio and AC Milan drew 1-1 in Serie A on November 25, 2018.

Goals: Wallace (78' o.g.), J. Correa (90+4').

Lazio controlled possession (54%) and registered 21 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.