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Lautaro de Buin vs Independiente — Segunda División 2020

Lautaro de Buin
Lautaro de Buin
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Independiente
Independiente
10/14/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 6Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Lautaro de Buin46%
×Draw25%
Independiente30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lautaro de Buin
1.59
Independiente
1.23

Lautaro de Buin creates 29% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 33 away

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin
1.63
Independiente
1.21

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin
1.25
Independiente
1.55

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par
Independiente+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Independiente →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw
70%
Lautaro de Buin or Independiente
75%
Draw or Independiente
54%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+
23%
Independiente wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals
80%
Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals
47%
Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals
21%
Independiente 1+ goals
71%
Independiente 2+ goals
35%
Independiente 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)
61%
Independiente (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Independiente away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.63 + Independiente defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.59

Independiente attack 1.21 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more
46%
level
25%
Independiente scores more
30%

Lautaro de Buin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lautaro de Buin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Lautaro de Buin 2–0 Independiente

Lautaro de Buin beat Independiente 2-0 in Segunda División on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida in Santiago de Chile.