Lautaro de Buin 2–1 Concepción: Result & Stats

Lautaro de Buin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Concepción

11/1/2020

Segunda División · Round 8Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Lautaro de Buin42%

×Draw26%

Concepción32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lautaro de BuinExpected goals in this matchConcepción

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.26

Lautaro de Buin

1.47

Concepción

1.26

Lautaro de Buin creates 17% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 59 away

1.63

creates per match

1.27

1.25

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.63

Concepción

1.27

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.25

Concepción

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

Concepción →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw

68%

Lautaro de Buin or Concepción

74%

Draw or Concepción

58%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

20%

Concepción wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

77%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

43%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

18%

Concepción 1+ goals

72%

Concepción 2+ goals

36%

Concepción 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

56%

Concepción (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

Concepción away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.63 + Concepción defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Concepción attack 1.27 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more

42%

level

26%

Concepción scores more

32%

Lautaro de Buin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lautaro de Buin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lautaro de Buin vs Concepción

Lautaro de Buin beat Concepción 2-1 in Segunda División on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida in Santiago de Chile.

Lautaro de Buin vs Concepción — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lautaro de Buin vs Concepción