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Lausanne vs Servette FC — Super League 2018

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Servette FC
Servette FC
12/9/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lausanne51%
×Draw23%
Servette FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.82
Servette FC
1.23

Lausanne creates 48% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lausanne
2.13
Servette FC
1.51

allows per match

Lausanne
0.95
Servette FC
1.52

finishing

Lausanne+0.30scores more
Servette FC+0.02on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

Servette FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
74%
Lausanne or Servette FC
77%
Draw or Servette FC
49%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
28%
Servette FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
84%
Lausanne 2+ goals
54%
Lausanne 3+ goals
27%
Servette FC 1+ goals
71%
Servette FC 2+ goals
35%
Servette FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
66%
Servette FC (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.13 + Servette FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.82

Servette FC attack 1.51 + Lausanne defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lausanne scores more
51%
level
23%
Servette FC scores more
26%

Lausanne at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lausanne vs Servette FC

Lausanne and Servette FC drew 1-1 in Super League on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.