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Lausanne vs FC Winterthur — Super League 2018

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
FC Winterthur
FC Winterthur
2/25/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 25Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Lausanne55%
×Draw21%
FC Winterthur24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
2.17
FC Winterthur
1.37

Lausanne creates 58% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Lausanne
2.13
FC Winterthur
1.79

allows per match

Lausanne
0.95
FC Winterthur
2.21

finishing

Lausanne+0.30scores more
FC Winterthur-0.01on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

FC Winterthur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
76%
Lausanne or FC Winterthur
79%
Draw or FC Winterthur
45%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
34%
FC Winterthur wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
89%
Lausanne 2+ goals
64%
Lausanne 3+ goals
36%
FC Winterthur 1+ goals
75%
FC Winterthur 2+ goals
40%
FC Winterthur 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
70%
FC Winterthur (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.95 · 7 matches

FC Winterthur away — creates 1.79, concedes 2.21 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.13 + FC Winterthur defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.17

FC Winterthur attack 1.79 + Lausanne defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Lausanne scores more
55%
level
21%
FC Winterthur scores more
24%

Lausanne at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lausanne vs FC Winterthur

Lausanne and FC Winterthur drew 1-1 in Super League on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.