Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Lausanne vs FC Lugano — Schweizer Cup 2019

Lausanne
Lausanne
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FC Lugano
FC Luganoadvanced
11/1/2023Schweizer CupSchweizer Cup · Round of 16Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lausanne23%
×Draw18%
FC Lugano59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lausanne
1.73
FC Lugano
2.81

FC Lugano creates 62% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 19 away

creates per match

Lausanne
2.50
FC Lugano
3.37

allows per match

Lausanne
2.25
FC Lugano
0.95

finishing

Lausanne+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw
41%
Lausanne or FC Lugano
82%
Draw or FC Lugano
77%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+
11%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals
82%
Lausanne 2+ goals
52%
Lausanne 3+ goals
25%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
94%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
76%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)
28%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 3.37, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.50 + FC Lugano defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC Lugano attack 3.37 + Lausanne defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lausanne scores more
23%
level
18%
FC Lugano scores more
59%

FC Lugano at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FC Lugano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Schweizer Cup: Lausanne 0–4 FC Lugano

FC Lugano beat Lausanne 4-0 in Schweizer Cup on November 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Tuilière in Lausanne.