Lausanne 2–4 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

Lausanne

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

BSC Young Boys

J. Bolingi 45'

N. Loosli 29'

M. Aebischer 84'

C. Fassnacht 71'

V. Sierro 26'

M. Spielmann 6'

5/21/2021

Super League · Round 36Stade de la Tuilière

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Lausanne57%

×Draw22%

BSC Young Boys21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LausanneExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.09

Lausanne

1.94

BSC Young Boys

1.09

Lausanne creates 78% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.03

creates per match

1.15

1.04

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Lausanne

2.03

BSC Young Boys

1.15

allows per match

Lausanne

1.04

BSC Young Boys

1.86

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

+0.60scores more than expected

finishing

Lausanne+0.30scores more

BSC Young Boys+0.60scores more

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lausanne ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Lausanne or draw

79%

Lausanne or BSC Young Boys

78%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

43%

Winning margin

Lausanne wins by 2+

33%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lausanne 1+ goals

86%

Lausanne 2+ goals

58%

Lausanne 3+ goals

30%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

66%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

30%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lausanne (draw refunded)

73%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lausanne at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lausanne attack 2.03 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.94

BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 + Lausanne defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lausanne scores more

57%

level

22%

BSC Young Boys scores more

21%

Lausanne at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lausanne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

S. Kukuruzović

Lausanne · M

7.9

Match Events

6'

M. Spielmann↳ F. Mambimbi

26'

V. Sierro

29'

N. Loosli

45'

J. Bolingi↳ L. Da Cunha

56'

Cedric Zesiger

64'

M. Sulejmani← F. Mambimbi

65'

Mohamed Ali Camara← V. Sierro

66'

J. Neuenschwander← G. Faivre

68'

A. Zohouri← E. Guessand

71'

C. Fassnacht↳ G. Gaudino

72'

R. Zekhnini← L. Da Cunha

75'

S. Hefti← Q. Maceiras

75'

J. Lefort← U. Garcia

79'

B. Ouattara← J. Bolingi

79'

Alvyn Sanches← Cameron Puertas

79'

S. Cueni← G. Barès

84'

M. Aebischer↳ M. Sulejmani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LausanneBSC

Overview

41%Possession59%

16Total Shots11

3Corners1

6Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots11

8On Target6

8Off Target5

0Blocked0

12Inside Box9

4Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

399Total Passes565

311Accurate Passes500

78%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

6Fouls13

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1