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Launceston United vs Glenorchy Knights — Tasmania NPL 2026

Launceston United
Launceston United
FT
0 – 9
HT: 0 – 6
Glenorchy Knights
Glenorchy Knights
3/16/2024Tasmania NPLTasmania NPL · Round 1Birch Avenue 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Launceston United12%
×Draw13%
Glenorchy Knights75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Launceston United
1.30
Glenorchy Knights
3.33

Glenorchy Knights creates 156% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 58 away

creates per match

Launceston United
1.13
Glenorchy Knights
2.47

allows per match

Launceston United
4.18
Glenorchy Knights
1.48

finishing

Launceston United+0.00on par
Glenorchy Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Launceston United ↓

Glenorchy Knights →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Launceston United or draw
25%
Launceston United or Glenorchy Knights
87%
Draw or Glenorchy Knights
88%

Winning margin

Launceston United wins by 2+
4%
Glenorchy Knights wins by 2+
56%

Team goals

Launceston United 1+ goals
73%
Launceston United 2+ goals
37%
Launceston United 3+ goals
14%
Glenorchy Knights 1+ goals
96%
Glenorchy Knights 2+ goals
84%
Glenorchy Knights 3+ goals
63%

Draw no bet

Launceston United (draw refunded)
13%
Glenorchy Knights (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Launceston United at home — creates 1.13, concedes 4.18 · 39 matches

Glenorchy Knights away — creates 2.47, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Launceston United attack 1.13 + Glenorchy Knights defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.30

Glenorchy Knights attack 2.47 + Launceston United defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 3.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Launceston United scores more
12%
level
13%
Glenorchy Knights scores more
75%

Glenorchy Knights at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Glenorchy Knights will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tasmania NPL: Launceston United 0–9 Glenorchy Knights

Glenorchy Knights beat Launceston United 9-0 in Tasmania NPL on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Birch Avenue 1 in Launceston.