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Latina vs Turris — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latina
Latina
PST
13:30
Turris
Turris
3/8/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 27Stadio Comunale Domenico Francioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Latina28%
×Draw26%
Turris45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latina
1.07
Turris
1.43

Turris creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Latina
1.38
Turris
2.08

allows per match

Latina
0.77
Turris
0.77

finishing

Latina+0.00on par
Turris+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latina ↓

Turris →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Latina or draw
55%
Latina or Turris
74%
Draw or Turris
72%

Winning margin

Latina wins by 2+
11%
Turris wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Latina 1+ goals
66%
Latina 2+ goals
29%
Latina 3+ goals
9%
Turris 1+ goals
76%
Turris 2+ goals
42%
Turris 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Latina (draw refunded)
38%
Turris (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latina at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Turris away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latina attack 1.38 + Turris defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.07

Turris attack 2.08 + Latina defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Latina scores more
28%
level
26%
Turris scores more
45%

Turris at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Turris will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Latina face Turris (Serie D - Girone G)

Serie D - Girone G returns with Latina hosting Turris. Match starts March 8, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Latina host Turris at Stadio Comunale Domenico Francioni.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.