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Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg — Bundesliga 2018

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
Preview
15:00
Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
10/24/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Round 10Raiffeisen Arena
Big match
43%
Red Bull Salzburg
model favours
33%24%43%

Red Bull Salzburg raise their game against the top half — 67% wins vs the upper half, only 43% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

Lask Linz33%
×Draw24%
Red Bull Salzburg43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.42
Red Bull Salzburg
1.65

Red Bull Salzburg creates 16% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 128 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
1.82
Red Bull Salzburg
2.15

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.14
Red Bull Salzburg
1.01

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
57%
Lask Linz or Red Bull Salzburg
76%
Draw or Red Bull Salzburg
67%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
15%
Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
76%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
41%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
17%
Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
81%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
49%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
43%
Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.01 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.82 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.42

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.15 + Lask Linz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lask Linz scores more
33%
level
24%
Red Bull Salzburg scores more
43%

Red Bull Salzburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 68% of Red Bull Salzburg’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Lask Linz 1 vs Red Bull Salzburg 3
  • Red Bull Salzburg fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.9 expected)
  • 20% of Red Bull Salzburg’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Linz
LLLWW
Salzburg
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg — Match Preview

Lask Linz face Red Bull Salzburg on October 24, 2026 in this Bundesliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lask Linz host Red Bull Salzburg at Raiffeisen Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.