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Las Rozas vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Torrejón
Torrejón
9/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 2Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Las Rozas48%
×Draw24%
Torrejón28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.64
Torrejón
1.19

Las Rozas creates 38% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 115 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
Torrejón
1.25

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
Torrejón
1.50

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Torrejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
72%
Las Rozas or Torrejón
76%
Draw or Torrejón
52%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
25%
Torrejón wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
81%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
49%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
23%
Torrejón 1+ goals
70%
Torrejón 2+ goals
33%
Torrejón 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
63%
Torrejón (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Las Rozas scores more
48%
level
24%
Torrejón scores more
28%

Las Rozas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Las Rozas vs Torrejón

Las Rozas and Torrejón drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.