Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Las Rozas vs Collado Villalba — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Las Rozas
Las Rozas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Collado Villalba
Collado Villalba
1/8/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 15Estadio Navalcarbón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Las Rozas45%
×Draw27%
Collado Villalba29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Rozas
1.41
Collado Villalba
1.07

Las Rozas creates 32% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 49 away

creates per match

Las Rozas
1.78
Collado Villalba
1.02

allows per match

Las Rozas
1.13
Collado Villalba
1.04

finishing

Las Rozas+0.00on par
Collado Villalba+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Rozas ↓

Collado Villalba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Las Rozas or draw
71%
Las Rozas or Collado Villalba
73%
Draw or Collado Villalba
55%

Winning margin

Las Rozas wins by 2+
21%
Collado Villalba wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Las Rozas 1+ goals
76%
Las Rozas 2+ goals
41%
Las Rozas 3+ goals
17%
Collado Villalba 1+ goals
66%
Collado Villalba 2+ goals
29%
Collado Villalba 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Las Rozas (draw refunded)
61%
Collado Villalba (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Rozas at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.13 · 88 matches

Collado Villalba away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Rozas attack 1.78 + Collado Villalba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.41

Collado Villalba attack 1.02 + Las Rozas defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Las Rozas scores more
45%
level
27%
Collado Villalba scores more
29%

Las Rozas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Las Rozas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Las Rozas 0–0 Collado Villalba

Las Rozas and Collado Villalba drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on January 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Navalcarbón in Las Rozas de Madrid.