Larne W 0–0 Crusaders W: Result & Stats

Larne W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crusaders W

6/7/2024

Premiership Women · Round 4Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Larne W17%

×Draw17%

Crusaders W66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Larne WExpected goals in this matchCrusaders W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

2.78

Larne W

1.38

Crusaders W

2.78

Crusaders W creates 101% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

0.86

creates per match

1.60

3.95

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Larne W

0.86

Crusaders W

1.60

allows per match

Larne W

3.95

Crusaders W

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larne W+0.00on par

Crusaders W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne W ↓

Crusaders W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–26%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Larne W or draw

34%

Larne W or Crusaders W

83%

Draw or Crusaders W

83%

Winning margin

Larne W wins by 2+

7%

Crusaders W wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Larne W 1+ goals

75%

Larne W 2+ goals

40%

Larne W 3+ goals

16%

Crusaders W 1+ goals

94%

Crusaders W 2+ goals

76%

Crusaders W 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Larne W (draw refunded)

21%

Crusaders W (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 3.95 · 21 matches

Crusaders W away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne W attack 0.86 + Crusaders W defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.38

Crusaders W attack 1.60 + Larne W defence 3.95 → ÷2 → 2.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Larne W scores more

17%

level

17%

Crusaders W scores more

66%

Crusaders W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Crusaders W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff