Larne 6–1 Glenavon FC: Result & Stats | League #408

Larne

FT

6 – 1

HT: 5 – 1

Glenavon FC

L. Bonis 78', 23', 15', 12'

A. Ryan 25', 17'

L. O'Sullivan 39'

3/16/2024

League #408 · Round 32Inver Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Larne62%

×Draw20%

Glenavon FC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LarneExpected goals in this matchGlenavon FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.04

Larne

2.12

Glenavon FC

1.04

Larne creates 104% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 58 away

2.23

creates per match

1.10

0.97

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Larne

2.23

Glenavon FC

1.10

allows per match

Larne

0.97

Glenavon FC

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Larne+0.00on par

Glenavon FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Larne ↓

Glenavon FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Larne or draw

82%

Larne or Glenavon FC

80%

Draw or Glenavon FC

38%

Winning margin

Larne wins by 2+

38%

Glenavon FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Larne 1+ goals

88%

Larne 2+ goals

62%

Larne 3+ goals

35%

Glenavon FC 1+ goals

65%

Glenavon FC 2+ goals

28%

Glenavon FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Larne (draw refunded)

78%

Glenavon FC (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Larne at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Glenavon FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Larne attack 2.23 + Glenavon FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Glenavon FC attack 1.10 + Larne defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Larne scores more

62%

level

20%

Glenavon FC scores more

18%

Larne at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Larne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

12'

15'

17'

23'

25'

25'

31'

39'

42'

42'

46'

46'

46'

56'

G. Hodgins← L. OSullivan

68'

J. Orozco

69'

L. Ives← L. Millar

73'

P. Campbell

73'

M. Randall← C. Gallagher

75'

D. Sloan← J. Orozco

78'

L. Bonis

83'

P. O'Neill← L. Bonis

83'

I. Westendorf← A. Ryan

85'

J. Malone

Larne

Glenavon

13

Byrne

30

▼

Ward

4

Birney

5

▼

Toure

32

⚽

▼

O'Sulliva

28

▼

7

39

10

8

99

▼

1

18

35

4

24

99

▼

Orozco

23

Cosgrove

21

▼

Millar

27

▼

Gallagher

29

⚽2

▼

Ryan

10

⚽4

▼

Bonis

Manager: T. Lynch

69'▲L. Ives←▼L. Millar

73'▲M. Randall←▼C. Gallagher

75'▲D. Sloan←▼J. Orozco

83'▲P. O'Neill←▼L. Bonis

83'▲I. Westendorf←▼A. Ryan

Larne substitutes

14Ives8Randall25Sloan9O'Neill17Westendorf6Thomson36McAdams

Manager: S. McDonnell

25'▲J. Doran←▼D. Toure

46'▲C. Kerr←▼R. Garrett

46'▲D. Wallace←▼S. Ward

46'▲D. Clarke←▼L. Lotefa

56'▲G. Hodgins←▼L. OSullivan

Glenavon FC substitutes

24Doran2Kerr23Wallace25Clarke9Hodgins17McCloskey44Deane

League #408: Larne 6–1 Glenavon FC

Larne beat Glenavon FC 6-1 in League #408 on March 16, 2024.

Goals: L. Bonis (12', 15', 23', 78'), A. Ryan (17', 25'), L. O'Sullivan (39').

The match was played at Inver Park in Larne.

Larne vs Glenavon FC — League #408 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #408: Larne 6–1 Glenavon FC