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Laos vs Vietnam — AFF Championship 2018

Laos
Laos
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vietnam
Vietnam
11/8/2018AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 1New Laos National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Laos6%
×Draw14%
Vietnam80%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laos
0.53
Vietnam
2.47

Vietnam creates 366% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 16 away

creates per match

Laos
0.50
Vietnam
1.69

allows per match

Laos
3.25
Vietnam
0.56

finishing

Laos+0.00on par
Vietnam+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laos ↓

Vietnam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–215%
0–313%
0–48%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Laos or draw
20%
Laos or Vietnam
86%
Draw or Vietnam
94%

Winning margin

Laos wins by 2+
1%
Vietnam wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Laos 1+ goals
41%
Laos 2+ goals
10%
Laos 3+ goals
2%
Vietnam 1+ goals
91%
Vietnam 2+ goals
70%
Vietnam 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Laos (draw refunded)
7%
Vietnam (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laos at home — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

Vietnam away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.56 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laos attack 0.50 + Vietnam defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.53

Vietnam attack 1.69 + Laos defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Laos scores more
6%
level
14%
Vietnam scores more
80%

Vietnam at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Vietnam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF Championship: Laos 0–3 Vietnam

Vietnam beat Laos 3-0 in AFF Championship on November 8, 2018.

The match was played at New Laos National Stadium in Vientiane.