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Lanzarote vs La Cuadra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Lanzarote
Lanzarote
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
La Cuadra
La Cuadra
9/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 1Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Lanzarote58%
×Draw24%
La Cuadra18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanzarote
1.70
La Cuadra
0.82

Lanzarote creates 107% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 75 away

creates per match

Lanzarote
1.58
La Cuadra
1.01

allows per match

Lanzarote
0.63
La Cuadra
1.81

finishing

Lanzarote+0.00on par
La Cuadra+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanzarote ↓

La Cuadra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lanzarote or draw
82%
Lanzarote or La Cuadra
76%
Draw or La Cuadra
42%

Winning margin

Lanzarote wins by 2+
32%
La Cuadra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Lanzarote 1+ goals
82%
Lanzarote 2+ goals
51%
Lanzarote 3+ goals
24%
La Cuadra 1+ goals
56%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
20%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Lanzarote (draw refunded)
76%
La Cuadra (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanzarote at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.63 · 107 matches

La Cuadra away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanzarote attack 1.58 + La Cuadra defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.70

La Cuadra attack 1.01 + Lanzarote defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Lanzarote scores more
58%
level
24%
La Cuadra scores more
18%

Lanzarote at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Lanzarote will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Lanzarote 1–1 La Cuadra

Lanzarote and La Cuadra drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de Lanzarote in Lanzarote.