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Lanusei vs Cassino — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lanusei
Lanusei
PST
13:00
Cassino
Cassino
4/19/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 32Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lanusei42%
×Draw28%
Cassino30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanusei
1.29
Cassino
1.04

Lanusei creates 24% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 98 away

creates per match

Lanusei
1.21
Cassino
0.98

allows per match

Lanusei
1.10
Cassino
1.38

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par
Cassino+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Cassino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw
70%
Lanusei or Cassino
72%
Draw or Cassino
58%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+
19%
Cassino wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals
72%
Lanusei 2+ goals
37%
Lanusei 3+ goals
14%
Cassino 1+ goals
65%
Cassino 2+ goals
28%
Cassino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)
58%
Cassino (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Cassino away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.38 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Cassino defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cassino attack 0.98 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lanusei scores more
42%
level
28%
Cassino scores more
30%

Lanusei at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lanusei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lanusei face Cassino (Serie D - Girone G)

Serie D - Girone G returns with Lanusei hosting Cassino. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lanusei host Cassino at Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.