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Lanusei vs Budoni — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Lanusei
Lanusei
PST
14:00
Budoni
Budoni
3/29/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 29Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Lanusei43%
×Draw28%
Budoni28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanusei
1.27
Budoni
0.97

Lanusei creates 31% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

creates per match

Lanusei
1.21
Budoni
0.83

allows per match

Lanusei
1.10
Budoni
1.34

finishing

Lanusei+0.00on par
Budoni+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanusei ↓

Budoni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Lanusei or draw
72%
Lanusei or Budoni
72%
Draw or Budoni
57%

Winning margin

Lanusei wins by 2+
19%
Budoni wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lanusei 1+ goals
72%
Lanusei 2+ goals
36%
Lanusei 3+ goals
14%
Budoni 1+ goals
62%
Budoni 2+ goals
25%
Budoni 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lanusei (draw refunded)
60%
Budoni (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanusei at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

Budoni away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanusei attack 1.21 + Budoni defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Budoni attack 0.83 + Lanusei defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Lanusei scores more
43%
level
28%
Budoni scores more
28%

Lanusei at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lanusei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lanusei host Budoni

March 29, 2020: Lanusei take on Budoni in Serie D - Girone G. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lanusei host Budoni at Campo Comunale Lixius Lanusei (Lanusei).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.