Lanus 3–3 Platense: Result & Stats

Lanus

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Platense

J. Sand 63'

J. López 55'

G. Burdisso 8'

M. Tissera 87', 33' (pen)

H. Tijanovich 79'

11/25/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 22Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Lanus46%

×Draw30%

Platense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LanusExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.80

Lanus

1.21

Platense

0.80

Lanus creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 21 away

1.22

creates per match

0.73

0.87

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Lanus

1.22

Platense

0.73

allows per match

Lanus

0.87

Platense

1.21

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Lanus-0.09on par

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Lanus or draw

76%

Lanus or Platense

70%

Draw or Platense

54%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+

20%

Platense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals

70%

Lanus 2+ goals

34%

Lanus 3+ goals

12%

Platense 1+ goals

55%

Platense 2+ goals

19%

Platense 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)

65%

Platense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.22 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Platense attack 0.73 + Lanus defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lanus scores more

46%

level

30%

Platense scores more

24%

Lanus at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

V. Malcorra

Lanus · M

8.0

Match Events

8'

G. Burdisso↳ V. Malcorra

26'

Nicolás Thaller

33'

M. TisseraPenalty

38'

José Sand

46'

M. Pérez← N. Thaller

55'

J. López↳ V. Malcorra

63'

J. Sand

67'

T. Belmonte← M. Esquivel

67'

Á. Gonzalez← Lautaro Acosta

70'

M. Bogado← N. Bertolo

70'

F. Baldassarra← H. Lamberti

71'

Tomás Belmonte

75'

P. De la Vega← J. López

79'

H. Tijanovich

82'

T. Sandoval← I. Gómez

82'

B. Mansilla← F. Curuchet

87'

M. Tissera↳ K. Lomónaco

88'

F. Pérez← J. Morel

90'

R. Bochi← H. Tijanovich

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LanusPlatense

Overview

47%Possession53%

12Total Shots18

6Corners10

17Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots18

4On Target7

7Off Target8

1Blocked3

8Inside Box13

4Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

275Total Passes303

173Accurate Passes203

63%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls10

3Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1