Langreo 0–0 Lealtad: Result & Stats

Langreo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lealtad

1/10/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Langreo42%

×Draw30%

Lealtad29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LangreoExpected goals in this matchLealtad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.93

Langreo

1.18

Lealtad

0.93

Langreo creates 27% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 13 away

1.28

creates per match

0.85

1.00

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Langreo

1.28

Lealtad

0.85

allows per match

Langreo

1.00

Lealtad

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langreo+0.00on par

Lealtad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo ↓

Lealtad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Langreo or draw

71%

Langreo or Lealtad

70%

Draw or Lealtad

58%

Winning margin

Langreo wins by 2+

18%

Lealtad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Langreo 1+ goals

69%

Langreo 2+ goals

33%

Langreo 3+ goals

12%

Lealtad 1+ goals

61%

Lealtad 2+ goals

24%

Lealtad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Langreo (draw refunded)

59%

Lealtad (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Lealtad away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo attack 1.28 + Lealtad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.18

Lealtad attack 0.85 + Langreo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Langreo scores more

42%

level

30%

Lealtad scores more

29%

Langreo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Langreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

51'

Jorge Hernández← Xurde Méndez

62'

C. Mboup← K. Atta

62'

Juan López← M. Fall

65'

R. Perez

70'

Jorge Sáez← Daniel Sandoval

70'

Juan Piniella← Unai Hernández

75'

Allyson← Pana

89'

Cristian Ebea← K. Kalvin

90+1'

Jordi Pola← Juan Mera

Langreo

Lealtad

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Ángel Rodríguez

51'▲Jorge Hernández←▼Xurde Méndez

75'▲Allyson←▼Pana

89'▲Cristian Ebea←▼K. Kalvin

Langreo substitutes

HernándezAllysonEbeaBretonesStamboulidisFerreiroDennisShinMvondo

Manager: Clemente Sánchez

62'▲C. Mboup←▼K. Atta

62'▲Juan López←▼M. Fall

70'▲Jorge Sáez←▼Daniel Sandoval

70'▲Juan Piniella←▼Unai Hernández

90+1'▲Jordi Pola←▼Juan Mera

Lealtad substitutes

MboupLópezSáezPiniellaPolaBlancoGarcíaRodríguezKania