Langreo 3–2 Coruxo: Result & Stats

Langreo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Coruxo

David Álvarez 86', 40'

Marc Nierga 16'

Antón de Vicente 88'

Álex Ares 52'

12/8/2019

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Langreo51%

×Draw26%

Coruxo23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LangreoExpected goals in this matchCoruxo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.89

Langreo

1.48

Coruxo

0.89

Langreo creates 66% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

1.28

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Langreo

1.28

Coruxo

0.78

allows per match

Langreo

1.00

Coruxo

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langreo+0.00on par

Coruxo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo ↓

Coruxo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Langreo or draw

77%

Langreo or Coruxo

74%

Draw or Coruxo

49%

Winning margin

Langreo wins by 2+

26%

Coruxo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Langreo 1+ goals

77%

Langreo 2+ goals

43%

Langreo 3+ goals

19%

Coruxo 1+ goals

59%

Coruxo 2+ goals

22%

Coruxo 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Langreo (draw refunded)

69%

Coruxo (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Coruxo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo attack 1.28 + Coruxo defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Coruxo attack 0.78 + Langreo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Langreo scores more

51%

level

26%

Coruxo scores more

23%

Langreo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Langreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Marc Nierga

40'

David Álvarez

52'

Álex Ares

70'

E. Lavsamba← Pedro Montero

70'

Jorge Hernández← Marc Nierga

70'

A. Sylla← David Añón

77'

Carlos Torrado← Lucas Fernández

77'

Óscar Martínez← Álex Ares

86'

David Álvarez

88'

Antón de Vicente

90+1'

Colo← David Álvarez

Langreo

Coruxo

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

Álvarez

▼

Montero

⚽

▼

Nierga

Manager: Dani Mori

70'▲E. Lavsamba←▼Pedro Montero

70'▲Jorge Hernández←▼Marc Nierga

90+1'▲Colo←▼David Álvarez

Langreo substitutes

LavsambaHernándezColoGomesCarracedoDennisGómez

Manager: Míchel Alonso

70'▲A. Sylla←▼David Añón

77'▲Carlos Torrado←▼Lucas Fernández

77'▲Óscar Martínez←▼Álex Ares

Coruxo substitutes

SyllaTorradoMartínezManuFuentesBrea