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Lane United vs TSS Rovers — USL League Two 2018

Lane United
Lane United
PST
21:00
TSS Rovers
TSS Rovers
7/5/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 48Civic Park (Eugene, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lane United65%
×Draw16%
TSS Rovers18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lane United
3.02
TSS Rovers
1.60

Lane United creates 89% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lane United
1.83
TSS Rovers
1.60

allows per match

Lane United
1.61
TSS Rovers
4.20

finishing

Lane United+0.00on par
TSS Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lane United ↓

TSS Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Lane United or draw
82%
Lane United or TSS Rovers
84%
Draw or TSS Rovers
35%

Winning margin

Lane United wins by 2+
46%
TSS Rovers wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lane United 1+ goals
95%
Lane United 2+ goals
80%
Lane United 3+ goals
57%
TSS Rovers 1+ goals
80%
TSS Rovers 2+ goals
47%
TSS Rovers 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Lane United (draw refunded)
78%
TSS Rovers (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lane United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

TSS Rovers away — creates 1.60, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lane United attack 1.83 + TSS Rovers defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.02

TSS Rovers attack 1.60 + Lane United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Lane United scores more
65%
level
16%
TSS Rovers scores more
18%

Lane United at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Lane United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lane United face TSS Rovers (USL League Two)

USL League Two returns with Lane United hosting TSS Rovers. Match starts July 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Lane United host TSS Rovers at Civic Park (Eugene, Oregon).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.