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Lane United vs Portland Timbers III — USL League Two 2018

Lane United
Lane United
PST
02:00
Portland Timbers III
Portland Timbers III
5/23/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 9Civic Park (Eugene, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lane United34%
×Draw22%
Portland Timbers III44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lane United
1.65
Portland Timbers III
1.91

Portland Timbers III creates 16% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 15 away

creates per match

Lane United
1.83
Portland Timbers III
2.20

allows per match

Lane United
1.61
Portland Timbers III
1.47

finishing

Lane United+0.00on par
Portland Timbers III+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lane United ↓

Portland Timbers III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Lane United or draw
56%
Lane United or Portland Timbers III
78%
Draw or Portland Timbers III
66%

Winning margin

Lane United wins by 2+
17%
Portland Timbers III wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Lane United 1+ goals
81%
Lane United 2+ goals
49%
Lane United 3+ goals
23%
Portland Timbers III 1+ goals
85%
Portland Timbers III 2+ goals
57%
Portland Timbers III 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Lane United (draw refunded)
43%
Portland Timbers III (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lane United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

Portland Timbers III away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lane United attack 1.83 + Portland Timbers III defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Portland Timbers III attack 2.20 + Lane United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lane United scores more
34%
level
22%
Portland Timbers III scores more
44%

Portland Timbers III at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portland Timbers III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lane United vs Portland Timbers III — Match Preview

Lane United face Portland Timbers III on May 23, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Lane United host Portland Timbers III at Civic Park (Eugene, Oregon).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.