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Lane United vs Calgary Foothills — USL League Two 2018

Lane United
Lane United
PST
02:00
Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothills
6/10/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 26Civic Park (Eugene, Oregon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lane United29%
×Draw21%
Calgary Foothills50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lane United
1.58
Calgary Foothills
2.14

Calgary Foothills creates 35% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lane United
1.83
Calgary Foothills
2.67

allows per match

Lane United
1.61
Calgary Foothills
1.33

finishing

Lane United+0.00on par
Calgary Foothills+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lane United ↓

Calgary Foothills →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Lane United or draw
50%
Lane United or Calgary Foothills
79%
Draw or Calgary Foothills
71%

Winning margin

Lane United wins by 2+
13%
Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Lane United 1+ goals
79%
Lane United 2+ goals
47%
Lane United 3+ goals
21%
Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
88%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
63%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Lane United (draw refunded)
36%
Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lane United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

Calgary Foothills away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lane United attack 1.83 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.58

Calgary Foothills attack 2.67 + Lane United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lane United scores more
29%
level
21%
Calgary Foothills scores more
50%

Calgary Foothills at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Calgary Foothills will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lane United host Calgary Foothills

June 10, 2020: Lane United take on Calgary Foothills in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Lane United host Calgary Foothills at Civic Park (Eugene, Oregon).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.