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Lancy vs Olympique de Genève — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Lancy
Lancy
FT
0 – 0
Olympique de Genève
Olympique de Genève
8/15/20201. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Stade de Marignac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lancy57%
×Draw23%
Olympique de Genève20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lancy
1.81
Olympique de Genève
0.98

Lancy creates 85% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 14 away

creates per match

Lancy
1.77
Olympique de Genève
0.43

allows per match

Lancy
1.54
Olympique de Genève
1.86

finishing

Lancy+0.00on par
Olympique de Genève+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lancy ↓

Olympique de Genève →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lancy or draw
80%
Lancy or Olympique de Genève
77%
Draw or Olympique de Genève
43%

Winning margin

Lancy wins by 2+
32%
Olympique de Genève wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lancy 1+ goals
84%
Lancy 2+ goals
54%
Lancy 3+ goals
27%
Olympique de Genève 1+ goals
62%
Olympique de Genève 2+ goals
26%
Olympique de Genève 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lancy (draw refunded)
74%
Olympique de Genève (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lancy at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

Olympique de Genève away — creates 0.43, concedes 1.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lancy attack 1.77 + Olympique de Genève defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Olympique de Genève attack 0.43 + Lancy defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lancy scores more
57%
level
23%
Olympique de Genève scores more
20%

Lancy at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lancy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lancy vs Olympique de Genève

Lancy and Olympique de Genève drew 0-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Stade de Marignac in Grand-Lancy.