Lancaster City 2–0 Whitby Town: Result & Stats

Lancaster City

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Whitby Town

D. Norris 77', 12'

2/25/2023

League #59 · Northern - 34Giant Axe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lancaster City29%

×Draw34%

Whitby Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lancaster CityExpected goals in this matchWhitby Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

0.93

Lancaster City

0.77

Whitby Town

0.93

Whitby Town creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

0.83

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Lancaster City

0.83

Whitby Town

0.86

allows per match

Lancaster City

1.00

Whitby Town

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lancaster City+0.00on par

Whitby Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lancaster City ↓

Whitby Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–117%

0–28%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Lancaster City or draw

62%

Lancaster City or Whitby Town

66%

Draw or Whitby Town

71%

Winning margin

Lancaster City wins by 2+

9%

Whitby Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lancaster City 1+ goals

54%

Lancaster City 2+ goals

18%

Lancaster City 3+ goals

4%

Whitby Town 1+ goals

61%

Whitby Town 2+ goals

24%

Whitby Town 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Lancaster City (draw refunded)

43%

Whitby Town (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lancaster City at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Whitby Town away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lancaster City attack 0.83 + Whitby Town defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.77

Whitby Town attack 0.86 + Lancaster City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lancaster City scores more

29%

level

34%

Whitby Town scores more

38%

Whitby Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Whitby Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

D. Norris

77'

D. Norris

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff