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Lancaster City vs Ashton United — League #59 2026

Lancaster City
Lancaster City
Preview
15:00
Ashton United
Ashton United
11/21/2026League #59League #59 · Round 20
47%
Lancaster City
model favours
47%23%29%

Lancaster City and Ashton United have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lancaster City47%
×Draw23%
Ashton United29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lancaster City
1.75
Ashton United
1.33

Lancaster City creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lancaster City
0.83
Ashton United
1.67

allows per match

Lancaster City
1.00
Ashton United
2.67

finishing

Lancaster City+0.00on par
Ashton United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lancaster City ↓

Ashton United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Lancaster City or draw
71%
Lancaster City or Ashton United
77%
Draw or Ashton United
53%

Winning margin

Lancaster City wins by 2+
25%
Ashton United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lancaster City 1+ goals
83%
Lancaster City 2+ goals
52%
Lancaster City 3+ goals
25%
Ashton United 1+ goals
74%
Ashton United 2+ goals
38%
Ashton United 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lancaster City (draw refunded)
62%
Ashton United (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lancaster City at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Ashton United away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lancaster City attack 0.83 + Ashton United defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Ashton United attack 1.67 + Lancaster City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lancaster City scores more
47%
level
23%
Ashton United scores more
29%

Lancaster City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lancaster City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
City
DWLDL
United
LDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Lancaster City host Ashton United

November 21, 2026: Lancaster City take on Ashton United in League #59. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.