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Lampang FC vs Kasetsart FC — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
0 – 1
Kasetsart FC
Kasetsart FC
7/28/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Lampang FC54%
×Draw24%
Kasetsart FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.67
Kasetsart FC
0.95

Lampang FC creates 76% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 132 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.48
Kasetsart FC
0.88

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
Kasetsart FC
1.85

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Kasetsart FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Kasetsart FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
79%
Lampang FC or Kasetsart FC
76%
Draw or Kasetsart FC
46%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
29%
Kasetsart FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
81%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
50%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
23%
Kasetsart FC 1+ goals
61%
Kasetsart FC 2+ goals
25%
Kasetsart FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
72%
Kasetsart FC (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Kasetsart FC away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.85 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Kasetsart FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.67

Kasetsart FC attack 0.88 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lampang FC scores more
54%
level
24%
Kasetsart FC scores more
21%

Lampang FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lampang FC 0–1 Kasetsart FC

Kasetsart FC beat Lampang FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on July 28, 2019.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang).