Lampang FC 1–1 Ayutthaya FC: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

1 – 1

Ayutthaya FC

2/21/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 23Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Lampang FC45%

×Draw26%

Ayutthaya FC29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchAyutthaya FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.13

Lampang FC

1.46

Ayutthaya FC

1.13

Lampang FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 100 away

1.53

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.53

Ayutthaya FC

1.25

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.00

Ayutthaya FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Ayutthaya FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

71%

Lampang FC or Ayutthaya FC

74%

Draw or Ayutthaya FC

55%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

22%

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

77%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

43%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

18%

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals

68%

Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals

31%

Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

60%

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 90 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.53 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Lampang FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lampang FC scores more

45%

level

26%

Ayutthaya FC scores more

29%

Lampang FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff