Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Laktaši vs Drina Zvornik — 1st League - RS 2019

Laktaši
Laktaši
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
11/18/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 16Stadion Laktaša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Laktaši73%
×Draw17%
Drina Zvornik10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laktaši
2.27
Drina Zvornik
0.68

Laktaši creates 234% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 96 away

creates per match

Laktaši
2.70
Drina Zvornik
0.71

allows per match

Laktaši
0.65
Drina Zvornik
1.83

finishing

Laktaši+0.00on par
Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laktaši ↓

Drina Zvornik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Laktaši or draw
90%
Laktaši or Drina Zvornik
83%
Draw or Drina Zvornik
27%

Winning margin

Laktaši wins by 2+
49%
Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Laktaši 1+ goals
90%
Laktaši 2+ goals
66%
Laktaši 3+ goals
39%
Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
49%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
15%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Laktaši (draw refunded)
88%
Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laktaši at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.65 · 66 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laktaši attack 2.70 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.27

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + Laktaši defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Laktaši scores more
73%
level
17%
Drina Zvornik scores more
10%

Laktaši at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Laktaši will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Laktaši vs Drina Zvornik

Laktaši beat Drina Zvornik 1-0 in 1st League - RS on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Laktaša in Laktaši.