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Lahti vs Turku PS — Veikkausliiga 2018

Lahti
Lahti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Turku PS
Turku PS
9/17/2020VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 15Lahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lahti48%
×Draw25%
Turku PS27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.60
Turku PS
1.12

Lahti creates 43% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 37 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.26
Turku PS
0.97

allows per match

Lahti
1.27
Turku PS
1.95

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
Turku PS+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Turku PS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
73%
Lahti or Turku PS
75%
Draw or Turku PS
52%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
25%
Turku PS wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
80%
Lahti 2+ goals
47%
Lahti 3+ goals
22%
Turku PS 1+ goals
67%
Turku PS 2+ goals
31%
Turku PS 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
64%
Turku PS (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

Turku PS away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.26 + Turku PS defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.60

Turku PS attack 0.97 + Lahti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Lahti scores more
48%
level
25%
Turku PS scores more
27%

Lahti at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lahti 1 – 1 Turku PS

Lahti and Turku PS drew 1-1 in Veikkausliiga on September 17, 2020.

The match was played at Lahden Stadion in Lahti.