Lahti 1–1 Inter Turku: Result & Stats

Lahti

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Inter Turku

4/19/2019

Veikkausliiga · Round 3Lahti Kisapuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Lahti36%

×Draw26%

Inter Turku37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LahtiExpected goals in this matchInter Turku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.32

Lahti

1.30

Inter Turku

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 118 away

1.26

creates per match

1.38

1.27

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Lahti

1.26

Inter Turku

1.38

allows per match

Lahti

1.27

Inter Turku

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par

Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Inter Turku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Lahti or draw

63%

Lahti or Inter Turku

74%

Draw or Inter Turku

64%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+

16%

Inter Turku wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals

73%

Lahti 2+ goals

37%

Lahti 3+ goals

14%

Inter Turku 1+ goals

73%

Inter Turku 2+ goals

38%

Inter Turku 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)

49%

Inter Turku (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.34 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.26 + Inter Turku defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.30

Inter Turku attack 1.38 + Lahti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Lahti scores more

36%

level

26%

Inter Turku scores more

37%

Inter Turku at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff