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Lahti vs Ilves — Veikkausliiga 2018

Lahti
Lahti
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ilves
Ilves
9/3/2023VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 22Lahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Lahti36%
×Draw26%
Ilves38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.32
Ilves
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 119 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.26
Ilves
1.49

allows per match

Lahti
1.27
Ilves
1.39

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Ilves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
62%
Lahti or Ilves
74%
Draw or Ilves
64%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
16%
Ilves wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
73%
Lahti 2+ goals
38%
Lahti 3+ goals
15%
Ilves 1+ goals
75%
Ilves 2+ goals
40%
Ilves 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
48%
Ilves (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

Ilves away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.39 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.26 + Ilves defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ilves attack 1.49 + Lahti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lahti scores more
36%
level
26%
Ilves scores more
38%

Ilves at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lahti 3 – 2 Ilves

Lahti beat Ilves 3-2 in Veikkausliiga on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at Lahden Stadion in Lahti.