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Lahti vs Honka — Veikkausliiga 2018

Lahti
Lahti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Honka
Honka
6/12/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 13Lahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Lahti35%
×Draw27%
Honka38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.20
Honka
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 84 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.26
Honka
1.29

allows per match

Lahti
1.27
Honka
1.14

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
Honka+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Honka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
62%
Lahti or Honka
73%
Draw or Honka
65%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
15%
Honka wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
70%
Lahti 2+ goals
34%
Lahti 3+ goals
12%
Honka 1+ goals
72%
Honka 2+ goals
37%
Honka 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
47%
Honka (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

Honka away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.26 + Honka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Honka attack 1.29 + Lahti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Lahti scores more
35%
level
27%
Honka scores more
38%

Honka at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Lahti 1–1 Honka

Lahti and Honka drew 1-1 in Veikkausliiga on June 12, 2018.

The match was played at Lahden Stadion in Lahti.