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Lahti vs HJK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

Lahti
Lahti
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki
5/12/2022VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 7Lahden Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Lahti30%
×Draw26%
HJK Helsinki44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
1.13
HJK Helsinki
1.44

HJK Helsinki creates 27% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 118 away

creates per match

Lahti
1.26
HJK Helsinki
1.60

allows per match

Lahti
1.27
HJK Helsinki
0.99

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
HJK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

HJK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
56%
Lahti or HJK Helsinki
74%
Draw or HJK Helsinki
70%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
12%
HJK Helsinki wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
68%
Lahti 2+ goals
31%
Lahti 3+ goals
11%
HJK Helsinki 1+ goals
76%
HJK Helsinki 2+ goals
42%
HJK Helsinki 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
40%
HJK Helsinki (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 108 matches

HJK Helsinki away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 1.26 + HJK Helsinki defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.13

HJK Helsinki attack 1.60 + Lahti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lahti scores more
30%
level
26%
HJK Helsinki scores more
44%

HJK Helsinki at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "HJK Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Lahti 1–1 HJK Helsinki

Lahti and HJK Helsinki drew 1-1 in Veikkausliiga on May 12, 2022.

The match was played at Lahden Stadion in Lahti.