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Lahti vs Gnistan — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Lahti
Lahti
FT
4 – 2
Gnistan
Gnistan
4/24/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kisapuiston tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Lahti59%
×Draw20%
Gnistan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lahti
2.16
Gnistan
1.22

Lahti creates 77% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Lahti
2.22
Gnistan
1.00

allows per match

Lahti
1.44
Gnistan
2.09

finishing

Lahti+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lahti ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Lahti or draw
79%
Lahti or Gnistan
80%
Draw or Gnistan
41%

Winning margin

Lahti wins by 2+
36%
Gnistan wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Lahti 1+ goals
88%
Lahti 2+ goals
63%
Lahti 3+ goals
36%
Gnistan 1+ goals
70%
Gnistan 2+ goals
34%
Gnistan 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lahti (draw refunded)
74%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lahti at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lahti attack 2.22 + Gnistan defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 2.16

Gnistan attack 1.00 + Lahti defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Lahti scores more
59%
level
20%
Gnistan scores more
21%

Lahti at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lahti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Lahti 4 – 2 Gnistan

Lahti beat Gnistan 4-2 in Friendlies Clubs on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Kisapuiston tekonurmi in Lahti.