Lagun Onak 1–2 Pasaia KE: Result & Stats

Lagun Onak

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Pasaia KE

Kepa Goikoetxea 54'

Mikel Rodriguez 60'

Aimar González 40'

1/8/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Estadio Garmendipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Lagun Onak46%

×Draw27%

Pasaia KE27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lagun OnakExpected goals in this matchPasaia KE

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.98

Lagun Onak

1.36

Pasaia KE

0.98

Lagun Onak creates 39% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 111 away

1.35

creates per match

1.00

0.97

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Lagun Onak

1.35

Pasaia KE

1.00

allows per match

Lagun Onak

0.97

Pasaia KE

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lagun Onak+0.00on par

Pasaia KE+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lagun Onak ↓

Pasaia KE →

0–010%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lagun Onak or draw

73%

Lagun Onak or Pasaia KE

73%

Draw or Pasaia KE

54%

Winning margin

Lagun Onak wins by 2+

21%

Pasaia KE wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lagun Onak 1+ goals

74%

Lagun Onak 2+ goals

39%

Lagun Onak 3+ goals

16%

Pasaia KE 1+ goals

62%

Pasaia KE 2+ goals

26%

Pasaia KE 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Lagun Onak (draw refunded)

63%

Pasaia KE (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lagun Onak at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.97 · 115 matches

Pasaia KE away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lagun Onak attack 1.35 + Pasaia KE defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.36

Pasaia KE attack 1.00 + Lagun Onak defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lagun Onak scores more

46%

level

27%

Pasaia KE scores more

27%

Lagun Onak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lagun Onak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Aimar González

46'

Aitor Díez← Josu Ibarbia

46'

Ekhi Gonzalez← Zubillaga

54'

Kepa Goikoetxea

59'

Imanol Urain← Ibai Quintanilla

59'

Iñaki Zabaleta← Ander Sáenz

60'

Barquero← Gorka Amuchastegui

60'

Mikel Rodriguez

70'

Manex Iradi← Gereta

73'

Jon Sánchez← Aitor Urrutia

76'

Pablo del Pozo← Kepa Goikoetxea

79'

Urbil Fraile← Mikel Rodriguez

79'

Karlos Santos← Jon Merino

Lagun

Pasaia

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Goikoetxe

▼

Amuchaste

▼

Gereta

Manager: Ander Avellaneda

46'▲Aitor Díez←▼Josu Ibarbia

46'▲Ekhi Gonzalez←▼Zubillaga

60'▲Barquero←▼Gorka Amuchastegui

70'▲Manex Iradi←▼Gereta

76'▲Pablo del Pozo←▼Kepa Goikoetxea

Lagun Onak substitutes

DíezGonzalezBarqueroIradiPozo

Manager: Gorka Valle

59'▲Imanol Urain←▼Ibai Quintanilla

59'▲Iñaki Zabaleta←▼Ander Sáenz

73'▲Jon Sánchez←▼Aitor Urrutia

79'▲Urbil Fraile←▼Mikel Rodriguez

79'▲Karlos Santos←▼Jon Merino

Pasaia KE substitutes

UrainZabaletaSánchezFraileSantos