Lafnitz II vs TuS Heiligenkreuz — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 71+ matches
Lafnitz II56%
TuS Heiligenkreuz24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Lafnitz II creates 59% more chances
Season form · 71 home / 72 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over72
- Under28
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes68
- No32
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lafnitz II ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lafnitz II at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.38 · 71 matches
TuS Heiligenkreuz away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.10 · 72 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lafnitz II attack 2.49 + TuS Heiligenkreuz defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.29
TuS Heiligenkreuz attack 1.49 + Lafnitz II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 56%?"
Lafnitz II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 56% does not mean "Lafnitz II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Fürstenfeld
Voitsberg
Mettersdorf
Gnas
FrauentalLafnitz II
Rottenmann
LebringTuS Heiligenkreuz
Union RB Weinland Gamlit
Leoben
Ilz
Wildon
Hitthaller St. Michael
Liezen
Bruck an der MurIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Lafnitz II host TuS Heiligenkreuz on Tuesday, 12 May 2020 at 17:00. The match is part of the Landesliga - Steiermark 2019/2020 season.
Lafnitz II face TuS Heiligenkreuz (Landesliga - Steiermark)
Landesliga - Steiermark returns with Lafnitz II hosting TuS Heiligenkreuz. Match starts May 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Lafnitz II host TuS Heiligenkreuz at Sportplatz Lafnitz.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.