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Ladispoli vs Torres — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ladispoli
Ladispoli
PST
13:00
Torres
Torres
5/3/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 34Stadio Angelo Sale (Ladispoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ladispoli23%
×Draw27%
Torres49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladispoli
0.87
Torres
1.40

Torres creates 61% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 29 away

creates per match

Ladispoli
1.15
Torres
1.41

allows per match

Ladispoli
1.38
Torres
0.59

finishing

Ladispoli+0.00on par
Torres+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladispoli ↓

Torres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ladispoli or draw
51%
Ladispoli or Torres
73%
Draw or Torres
77%

Winning margin

Ladispoli wins by 2+
8%
Torres wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ladispoli 1+ goals
58%
Ladispoli 2+ goals
22%
Ladispoli 3+ goals
6%
Torres 1+ goals
75%
Torres 2+ goals
41%
Torres 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ladispoli (draw refunded)
32%
Torres (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladispoli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Torres away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.59 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladispoli attack 1.15 + Torres defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.87

Torres attack 1.41 + Ladispoli defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ladispoli scores more
23%
level
27%
Torres scores more
49%

Torres at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ladispoli face Torres (Serie D - Girone G)

Serie D - Girone G returns with Ladispoli hosting Torres. Match starts May 3, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Ladispoli host Torres at Stadio Angelo Sale (Ladispoli).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.