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Ladispoli vs Latina — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Ladispoli
Ladispoli
PST
13:00
Latina
Latina
4/19/2020Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Round 32Stadio Angelo Sale (Ladispoli)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ladispoli33%
×Draw25%
Latina42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ladispoli
1.34
Latina
1.53

Latina creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ladispoli
1.15
Latina
1.69

allows per match

Ladispoli
1.38
Latina
1.54

finishing

Ladispoli+0.00on par
Latina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ladispoli ↓

Latina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Ladispoli or draw
58%
Ladispoli or Latina
75%
Draw or Latina
67%

Winning margin

Ladispoli wins by 2+
15%
Latina wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ladispoli 1+ goals
74%
Ladispoli 2+ goals
39%
Ladispoli 3+ goals
15%
Latina 1+ goals
78%
Latina 2+ goals
45%
Latina 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ladispoli (draw refunded)
44%
Latina (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ladispoli at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Latina away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ladispoli attack 1.15 + Latina defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Latina attack 1.69 + Ladispoli defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ladispoli scores more
33%
level
25%
Latina scores more
42%

Latina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Latina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ladispoli host Latina

April 19, 2020: Ladispoli take on Latina in Serie D - Girone G. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ladispoli host Latina at Stadio Angelo Sale (Ladispoli).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.