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Laci vs Vllaznia Shkodër — Superliga 2018

Laci
Laci
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vllaznia Shkodër
Vllaznia Shkodër
2/4/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 22Stadiumi Laçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Laci44%
×Draw29%
Vllaznia Shkodër28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laci
1.25
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.93

Laci creates 34% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 128 away

creates per match

Laci
1.48
Vllaznia Shkodër
0.97

allows per match

Laci
0.88
Vllaznia Shkodër
1.02

finishing

Laci+0.00on par
Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laci ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Laci or draw
72%
Laci or Vllaznia Shkodër
71%
Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër
56%

Winning margin

Laci wins by 2+
20%
Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Laci 1+ goals
71%
Laci 2+ goals
36%
Laci 3+ goals
13%
Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals
61%
Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals
24%
Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Laci (draw refunded)
61%
Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laci at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 126 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.02 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laci attack 1.48 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.25

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Laci defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Laci scores more
44%
level
29%
Vllaznia Shkodër scores more
28%

Laci at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Laci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Laci 1–1 Vllaznia Shkodër

Laci and Vllaznia Shkodër drew 1-1 in Superliga on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Laçi in Laç.