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Laagri vs Paide — Meistriliiga 2026

Laagri
Laagri
Preview
16:00
Paide
Paide
7/19/2026MeistriliigaMeistriliiga · Round 20Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Big match
50%
Paide
model favours
26%24%50%

Paide are unbeaten in 8 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Laagri26%
×Draw24%
Paide50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Laagri
1.18
Paide
1.71

Paide creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 125 away

creates per match

Laagri
1.26
Paide
1.84

allows per match

Laagri
1.57
Paide
1.10

finishing

Laagri+0.00on par
Paide+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Laagri ↓

Paide →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Laagri or draw
50%
Laagri or Paide
76%
Draw or Paide
74%

Winning margin

Laagri wins by 2+
11%
Paide wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Laagri 1+ goals
69%
Laagri 2+ goals
33%
Laagri 3+ goals
12%
Paide 1+ goals
82%
Paide 2+ goals
51%
Paide 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Laagri (draw refunded)
35%
Paide (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Laagri at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 46 matches

Paide away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.10 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Laagri attack 1.26 + Paide defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Paide attack 1.84 + Laagri defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Laagri scores more
26%
level
24%
Paide scores more
50%

Paide at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Paide will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Paide score first in only 20% of matches
  • Paide have scored in 9 games running
  • 72% of Laagri’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Laagri score first in only 33% of matches
  • Paide have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Both teams score in 72% of Paide’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Laagri
WLLLL
Paide
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Laagri vs Paide — Match Preview

Laagri face Paide on July 19, 2026 in this Meistriliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Laagri host Paide at Laagri kunstmurustaadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.