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La Virgen del Camino vs Salamanca II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

La Virgen del Camino
La Virgen del Camino
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Salamanca II
Salamanca II
8/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 1Campo Los Dominicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

La Virgen del Camino42%
×Draw29%
Salamanca II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Virgen del Camino
1.22
Salamanca II
0.97

La Virgen del Camino creates 26% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 61 away

creates per match

La Virgen del Camino
1.10
Salamanca II
1.00

allows per match

La Virgen del Camino
0.93
Salamanca II
1.34

finishing

La Virgen del Camino+0.00on par
Salamanca II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Virgen del Camino ↓

Salamanca II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

La Virgen del Camino or draw
71%
La Virgen del Camino or Salamanca II
71%
Draw or Salamanca II
58%

Winning margin

La Virgen del Camino wins by 2+
18%
Salamanca II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

La Virgen del Camino 1+ goals
70%
La Virgen del Camino 2+ goals
34%
La Virgen del Camino 3+ goals
12%
Salamanca II 1+ goals
62%
Salamanca II 2+ goals
25%
Salamanca II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

La Virgen del Camino (draw refunded)
59%
Salamanca II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Virgen del Camino at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 110 matches

Salamanca II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Virgen del Camino attack 1.10 + Salamanca II defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Salamanca II attack 1.00 + La Virgen del Camino defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

La Virgen del Camino scores more
42%
level
29%
Salamanca II scores more
29%

La Virgen del Camino at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "La Virgen del Camino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: La Virgen del Camino vs Salamanca II

Salamanca II beat La Virgen del Camino 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Los Dominicos in La Virgen Del Camino.