La Nucía 1–2 Levante II: Result & Stats

La Nucía

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Levante II

9/7/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Estadi Olímpic Camilo Cano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

La Nucía44%

×Draw28%

Levante II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La NucíaExpected goals in this matchLevante II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.97

La Nucía

1.28

Levante II

0.97

La Nucía creates 32% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 68 away

1.53

creates per match

1.12

0.81

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

La Nucía

1.53

Levante II

1.12

allows per match

La Nucía

0.81

Levante II

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Nucía+0.00on par

Levante II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Nucía ↓

Levante II →

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

La Nucía or draw

72%

La Nucía or Levante II

72%

Draw or Levante II

56%

Winning margin

La Nucía wins by 2+

20%

Levante II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

La Nucía 1+ goals

72%

La Nucía 2+ goals

37%

La Nucía 3+ goals

14%

Levante II 1+ goals

62%

Levante II 2+ goals

25%

Levante II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

La Nucía (draw refunded)

61%

Levante II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Nucía at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

Levante II away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Nucía attack 1.53 + Levante II defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.28

Levante II attack 1.12 + La Nucía defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

La Nucía scores more

44%

level

28%

Levante II scores more

28%

La Nucía at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "La Nucía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff