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La Cuadra vs Tenerife II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

La Cuadra
La Cuadra
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Tenerife II
Tenerife II
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

La Cuadra37%
×Draw26%
Tenerife II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

La Cuadra
1.31
Tenerife II
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 74 away

creates per match

La Cuadra
1.54
Tenerife II
1.46

allows per match

La Cuadra
1.17
Tenerife II
1.08

finishing

La Cuadra+0.00on par
Tenerife II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Cuadra ↓

Tenerife II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

La Cuadra or draw
63%
La Cuadra or Tenerife II
74%
Draw or Tenerife II
63%

Winning margin

La Cuadra wins by 2+
16%
Tenerife II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

La Cuadra 1+ goals
73%
La Cuadra 2+ goals
38%
La Cuadra 3+ goals
14%
Tenerife II 1+ goals
73%
Tenerife II 2+ goals
38%
Tenerife II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

La Cuadra (draw refunded)
50%
Tenerife II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

La Cuadra at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.17 · 76 matches

Tenerife II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

La Cuadra attack 1.54 + Tenerife II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.31

Tenerife II attack 1.46 + La Cuadra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

La Cuadra scores more
37%
level
26%
Tenerife II scores more
37%

La Cuadra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "La Cuadra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: La Cuadra 2–4 Tenerife II

Tenerife II beat La Cuadra 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Los Pozos in Puerto Rosario.